A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
